A report prepared by Cornell researchers projects that New York State's population will decline significantly over the next several decades.

The report was done by researchers from the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy’s Program on Applied Demographics (PAD) with funding from New York State.

New York State’s population could shrink by more than 2 million people over the next 25 years – a decline of more than 13%.

This graph shows the population trends over the last two decades, and the projected trend up to 2050 using data collection methods that take several factors into account.

Some of those factors include things like birth rates and death rates, the median age of people within New York, and migration of people in and out of the state.

The research shows that domestic migration flows are the biggest driver of population change in New York and also the hardest to project.

Jan Vink, Senior Extension Associate with PAD at Cornell said, "More people have been leaving, New York state have been arriving and now we took into account in our projections and can see that continuing."

The median age in New York State is currently at 40 years of age but that is projected to rise to 43 or 44 by 2050.

Studies also showed a rise in people leaving the state at 60 years of age or older.

The number of people aged 0-17 is projected to decline between 10% and 25% over the coming 25 years amid a decline in the number of births.

Vink said, "Those projections kind of show that the number of births have been declining in the past and will continue to decline. And at a certain point during the next decade, it's likely that the number of deaths will be greater than the number of births. As far as I know, that will be kind of unique for New York,"

The team expects to complete county-by-county population projections in the spring of 2025 and also do a study of how the decline will impact the state.